This Global Futures Bulletin examines how the Amazon is increasingly framed not only as an environmental asset but as a strategic source of minerals essential to the energy transition and modern defence systems. This dual demand – clean energy and hard security – has elevated
Check out events, launches, and partnerships during the COP30 The Igarapé Institute returns from Belém after a strategic participation at COP30, contributing to the global climate agenda across three key themes: financing for nature, tackling environmental crimes, and new designs for effective international cooperation. The
Igarapé at COP 30 Towards a More Just and Sustainable Planet Brazil is preparing to host COP30 in Belém do Pará at a decisive moment for the climate and nature agenda. For the Igarapé Institute, holding the conference in Amazonian territory represents a unique opportunity
Artificial intelligence has reached a critical inflection point, raising fundamental questions about safety, alignment, regulation, and the very future of humanity. Propelled by technical advances toward “superintelligence” through tools such as transformer architectures, reinforcement learning, and model distillation, the current moment in AI may
The climate agenda has been gaining strength within BRICS since 2019. Initially marked by occasional mentions in political declarations, it gained new momentum with Brazil’s BRICS presidency in 2025 — the same year the country is also hosting COP30. In this context, cooperation has evolved
At the close of the G20 Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva proposed the creation of a new Climate Change Council. Rather than presenting a finalized proposal, the Brazilian government invited the international community to
Brazil is preparing to host COP30 in Belém do Pará at a decisive moment for the climate and nature agenda. For the Igarapé Institute, holding the conference in Amazonian territory represents a unique opportunity to transform symbolism into action: to place the forest at
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) is outpacing current global governance efforts aimed at ensuring its safety and alignment with ethical principles. While the United States, Europe, and China lead in the development of AI technologies and regulatory frameworks, most countries — particularly in
In 2024, Brazil took a bold step toward cannabis reform. The country’s Supreme Federal Court ruled that adults can legally possess up to 40 grams of cannabis and cultivate six female plants for personal use. While this landmark decision doesn’t amount to full legalization, it
In Brazil’s Yanomami Indigenous Territory and across other parts of the Amazon Basin, illegal gold mining has metastasized into a transnational criminal enterprise. What starts with illegal deforestation and mercury poisoning ends with laundered gold flowing into global supply chains. The trade finances organized crime, corrupt officials,
Haiti is sliding into the abyss. Violence has intensified since the beginning of the year as gangs continued to overrun communities and paralyze basic services. The capital, Port-au-Prince, and several other cities are now largely controlled by powerful gang coalitions, most notably Viv Amsanm and Gran Grif. The country’s Transitional Presidential Council (TPC), formed with CARICOM over a year
President Donald Trump has suggested that minerals beneath Ukraine could be worth trillions of dollars and that they could help shore up vital U.S. supply chains. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said his country’s mineral wealth is “priceless.”
Earlier this month, Juliette Dorson, a 50-year-old Haitian caterer, was shot while working an event in Port-au-Prince. Her business partner, Luc, died in the attack. She survived, but barely. For residents of Haiti’s capital, such horrors are tragically routine. Gangs now control four-fifths of the city, wielding not
The global development industry is facing a reckoning. Long reliant on Western donors, the sector is grappling with deep and sudden cuts to official development assistance. The crisis in aid affects tens of thousands of workers and service users with cascading effects on food security, poverty reduction, health and education provision,
A world in crisis needs a functioning civil society. But today, three out of four people live under authoritarian regimes that are determined to stifle civil society – and even those in liberal democracies are witnessing alarming efforts to dismantle the sector. What should philanthropy do? A panel
The global energy transition is putting into motion a rapid shift from fossil fuel dependency to mineral extraction. This shift is fueling exponential growth in demand for critical minerals, the backbone of clean energy, and a vast range of advanced digital technologies. As a result,
The world faces an unprecedented convergence of environmental crises – climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss – that collectively threaten the planet’s ecological balance and humanity’s future. Reversing the Triple Planetary Crisis necessitates urgent and coordinated action across all sectors and countries, accelerating the transition
Under Brazil’s presidency, the social agenda of the G20 has gained significant focus this year, with proposals addressing three key priorities of the country’s leadership: poverty alleviation, reform of global governance, and sustainable development. Participation from organizations extended beyond engagement groups, with formal contributions made
Financing a Sustainable Global Bioeconomy, released Sept 12, 2024, is a landscape analysis of the current and prospective interplay between finance and the bioeconomy authored by NatureFinance and the World Bioeconomy Forum, with the support of dozens of civil society organizations – including the Igarapé
Amazon 2030, with the support of BVRio and Igarapé Institute, released today a concept note on a Tropical Forests Mechanism (TFM) aimed at supporting nature finance at scale to guarantee the maintenance and enhancement of tropical forests worldwide. The mechanism is expected to complement the Brazilian government’s Tropical
At the invitation of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the Igarapé Institute contributed to the material that was used by the participants of the J20, a meeting of representatives of the Supreme Courts and Constitutional Courts of the G20 member countries, in a global meeting
With 100% of the economy being dependent on nature, the way we choose to define our economies going forward will tip the scales towards either an equitable nature-positive future, or an irreversible nature-negative one – with devastating impacts for people and the planet. The ‘bioeconomy’
The United Nations Development Programme’s 2023/24 Human Development Report, “Overcoming the Impasse: Reimagining Cooperation in a Polarized World,” highlights the challenges posed by intensifying inequalities and global political polarization, emphasizing the importance of addressing these problems urgently and assertively. The document, prepared by the Advisory
The promise and peril of Artificial intelligence (AI) dominated the global agenda in 2023 and will be an even more pressing concern in 2024. This Global Futures Bulletin considers the global AI regulatory landscape – asking where AI safety and alignment policies are produced and
Extracted from the UNODC’s 2023 World Drug Report, this summary addresses the nexus between drugs and environmental crimes, as well as converging crimes in the Amazon Basin. The extract, for which the head of Innovation at the Igarapé Institute, Robert Muggah, was responsible, indicates that
The planet’s future hinges on safeguarding the remaining tropical forests. These forests, crucial for reducing global temperature by at least 1°C, are home for two-thirds of global biodiversity and absorb 29% of the world’s annual CO2 emissions. In this Global Futures Bulletin, we present a
The rapid spread and borderless reach of disinformation and misinformation are amplified by our growing reliance on digital connections and devices and supercharged by artificial intelligence (AI). The proliferation of fake news, conspiracies, and malign content coincides with declining trust in mainstream media and
Money laundering involves concealing the origins of illegally obtained funds, while illicit financial flows impact developed and developing countries alike as criminal proceeds traverse international borders. In this edition, we highlight the threat of money laundering and illicit financial flows for the stability of financial
Rampant deforestation and degradation are pushing the Amazon Basin to a dangerous tipping point that could jeopardize its vast carbon capture and water production potential, with serious consequences for South America and beyond. The second Global Futures Bulletin – The Amazon Climate Bomb – highlights
A new report from the Igarape Institute delivers a snapshot of the scope and scale of the migration and displacement challenges ahead Rising temperatures and extreme weather are increasingly determining where and how people live. Heat waves, droughts, forest fires, hurricanes, and storms
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