This second Global Futures Bulletin in the Igarapé Institute’s “Towards a Roadmap to Zero Deforestation” series advances the discussion on the COP30 Presidency’s Roadmap on Halting and Reversing Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2030. Building on the reflections presented in the first edition, this new
Regulating sectors that impact forests is essential to prevent, reduce, and combat environmental crimes in the Amazon. Illegality does not lie in natural resources themselves, but in how they are extracted, processed, transported, and traded. When markets for gold, timber, cattle, and land operate without
Regulating sectors that impact forests is essential to prevent, reduce, and combat environmental crimes in the Amazon. Illegality does not lie in natural resources themselves, but in how they are extracted, processed, transported, and traded. When markets for gold, timber, cattle, and land operate without
Regulating sectors that impact forests is essential to prevent, reduce, and combat environmental crimes in the Amazon. Illegality does not lie in natural resources themselves, but in how they are extracted, processed, transported, and traded. When markets for gold, timber, cattle, and land operate without
Regulating sectors that impact forests is essential to prevent, reduce, and combat environmental crimes in the Amazon. Illegality does not lie in natural resources themselves, but in how they are extracted, processed, transported, and traded. When markets for gold, timber, cattle, and land operate without
Deforestation in the Amazon is at a decisive moment. In Brazil alone, 91% of the deforestation recorded between 2023 and 2024 occurred without authorization. The continuation of this process brings the forest closer to a point of no return, with irreversible impacts on climate regulation,
COP30 in Belém marks the beginning of a new phase in the global climate agenda focused on implementation. In this context, the Brazilian COP30 Presidency is expected to deliver two Roadmaps by November 2026 to accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement: one on
COP30, held in Belém in 2025, marked an important step forward in strengthening climate-nature synergies within the United Nations’ efforts to address the climate crisis. For the first time, linkages between climate action, ecosystem protection, and land-use governance were reflected across the four pillars of
This Global Futures Bulletin examines how the Amazon is increasingly framed not only as an environmental asset but as a strategic source of minerals essential to the energy transition and modern defence systems. This dual demand – clean energy and hard security – has elevated
We are living through an unprecedented climate crisis that poses an imminent risk to biodiversity and to future generations of our planet. The crisis is driven by the destruction of forests, which play a crucial role in absorbing CO₂, but which now emit more carbon
The transboundary region between the Caquetá–Japurá and Puré–Puruê rivers, located between southern Colombia and northern Amazonas State in Brazil, is one of the most well-preserved and, at the same time, most vulnerable ecological corridors in the Amazon. In this setting of interconnected rivers, vast areas
Climate change and biodiversity loss are distinct phenomena, yet deeply interconnected, with mutual impacts. The Amazon Basin is a powerful example of this interdependence, increasingly threatened by deforestation and the direct effects of environmental degradation. The symbiotic relationship between the climate and biodiversity crises affects
Artificial intelligence has reached a critical inflection point, raising fundamental questions about safety, alignment, regulation, and the very future of humanity. Propelled by technical advances toward “superintelligence” through tools such as transformer architectures, reinforcement learning, and model distillation, the current moment in AI may
The climate agenda has been gaining strength within BRICS since 2019. Initially marked by occasional mentions in political declarations, it gained new momentum with Brazil’s BRICS presidency in 2025 — the same year the country is also hosting COP30. In this context, cooperation has evolved
The Amazon is the largest tropical forest on the planet, harboring about 10% of global biodiversity and playing a vital role in regulating the climate and the carbon cycle. Despite its socio-environmental relevance, the Amazon is under growing pressure from the gold, timber, cattle, and
At the close of the G20 Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva proposed the creation of a new Climate Change Council. Rather than presenting a finalized proposal, the Brazilian government invited the international community to
Threats to physical security, land conflicts, environmental degradation, and weak state presence are among the most urgent challenges faced by organizations in Brazil and Colombia working on the frontlines of the Amazon. These risks are compounded by global demand for commodities — including timber,
Environmental and natural resource-related crimes represent the third-largest illicit economy in the world in terms of the volume of money involved, ranking behind only drug trafficking and human trafficking. These are offenses that affect nature and threaten the planet’s sustainability, such as illegal logging, illicit
This publication presents an analysis of six community-led initiatives in the Amazon, organized around practical lessons that address the region’s challenges. Among the most pressing challenges are the advance of deforestation, the intensification of illicit activities, pressure on protected territories, biodiversity loss, barriers to accessing
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) is outpacing current global governance efforts aimed at ensuring its safety and alignment with ethical principles. While the United States, Europe, and China lead in the development of AI technologies and regulatory frameworks, most countries — particularly in
Throughout 2024, the Igarapé Institute continued to drive solutions for public, digital and climate security challenges. At a time of deepening geopolitical turbulence, the Institute reinforced its role as a key interlocutor in global debates on international security, safe and secure AI, and environmental crime.
Environmental and human rights defenders play a critical role in combating ecosystem degradation and mitigating climate change. They serve as central members of their communities, organizing others to fight injustices and abuses. Environmental defenders are the first line of defense in places where the biome
An analysis of the impacts and results of social reintegration initiatives for formerly incarcerated individuals in Brazil and worldwide, focusing on recidivism and the guarantee of rights. This is the primary objective of this study, which mapped 32 evaluative publications related to 21 national and
The global energy transition is putting into motion a rapid shift from fossil fuel dependency to mineral extraction. This shift is fueling exponential growth in demand for critical minerals, the backbone of clean energy, and a vast range of advanced digital technologies. As a result,
The world faces an unprecedented convergence of environmental crises – climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss – that collectively threaten the planet’s ecological balance and humanity’s future. Reversing the Triple Planetary Crisis necessitates urgent and coordinated action across all sectors and countries, accelerating the transition
The Amazon faces a variety of security challenges, ranging from historical issues such as high homicide rates, theft, drug trafficking, and violence against women to new threats to the region’s rich biodiversity, including deforestation, illegal logging, illegal mining, and land grabbing. Considering the complexity of
A manual for mitigating harm Since 2010, the world has seen a sharp uptake in the use of crime prediction technologies. Although these tools have the potential to improve public safety, they are often deployed without sufficient training and oversight, adherence to procedural safeguards, or
Deforestation in the Amazon region, especially in the State of Pará, poses a significant environmental challenge. Until 2022, Pará led deforestation among the Amazon states, driven by a series of interconnected factors. The implementation of infrastructure (roads, hydroelectric dams), the expansion of agricultural and livestock
The Brazilian Legal Amazon is the site of a complex ecosystem of environmental and related non-environmental crimes that impact both the environment and the people living there. Organized environmental crime contributes in many ways to the destruction and degradation of the forest, significantly accelerating land
Amazon 2030, with the support of BVRio and Igarapé Institute, released today a concept note on a Tropical Forests Mechanism (TFM) aimed at supporting nature finance at scale to guarantee the maintenance and enhancement of tropical forests worldwide. The mechanism is expected to complement the Brazilian government’s Tropical
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