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Global Trends and Projections of Homicidal Violence: 2000 to 2030

By Carlos J. Vilalta

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There are marked differences in the evolution of intentional homicide in different regions of the world. While global homicide rates are at historic lows, there are regions where homicidal violence is persistent and shows no sign of decreasing. This Homicide Dispatch explores these regional variations, identifying the countries that are driving past and present trends. The Dispatch also offers short-term projections of homicide in the coming years. It finds that while homicide rates are decreasing (Africa, Asia, Europe and North America) or stable (Oceania), they nevertheless continue increasing in Latin America. Specifically, Central America and the Caribbean are the main drivers of upward trends. Future projections show that homicides may become rare events in most parts of the world even as they increase in Latin America.

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