The geopolitics of critical minerals and implications for Brazil and Canada
Critical minerals have moved from the margins of industrial policy to the center of geopolitical competition. Cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earths now underpin three strategic imperatives: energy transition, digital infrastructure, and defense readiness. As rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, and as China leverages its dominance in processing, governments are reshaping supply chains through new alliances and targeted policy interventions.
Brazil and Canada are central to this emerging mineral order. Both countries combine strong geological endowments with institutional capacity and diplomatic reach. Canada brings diversified extraction, growing midstream ambitions, and a coordinated policy approach reinforced during its 2025 G7 presidency. Brazil brings vast reserves and a more assertive industrial strategy aimed at moving up the value chain and reducing reliance on raw material exports.
Yet both face the same structural challenge: transforming resource abundance into lasting economic and geopolitical influence. China’s dominance in processing reflects decades of accumulated technological capability, specialized expertise, and industrial learning—not simply subsidies. Closing this gap requires sustained investment in midstream capacity, particularly in refining, chemical conversion, and skilled labor.
This article examines the forces shaping the global minerals landscape, including demand dynamics, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the evolving toolkit of geoeconomic competition. It analyzes how major powers are structuring alliances and how Brazil and Canada are positioning themselves within this shifting architecture—both individually and as potential partners.
It concludes by outlining pathways for bilateral and regional cooperation, from building a Canada-Brazil midstream corridor and aligning standards to investing in human capital and strengthening regional infrastructure. The window for action is narrowing: as the institutional framework of mineral security takes shape, countries that move early and strategically will help define the rules of the system rather than adapt to them.
Learn more about this topic in the Global Futures Bulletins The Amazon and the new mineral resource order and The scramble to secure critical minerals could exacerbate geopolitical, ecological, and planetary instability, as well as in the article Brazil’s critical and strategic minerals in a changing world
Leia a publicação
