A darkening threat horizon with a green silver lining in 2021

Published in Paris Peace Forum

By Robert Muggah and Ilona Szabó

With tensions rising between global powers, digital attacks increasing in frequency and intensity, deepening climate threats and dangerously uneven Covid-19 recovery, 2021 is shaping-up to be the year that risk management took center stage. How governments, companies and citizens anticipate and respond to interconnected systemic risks today will determine whether they thrive or survive in the coming years.

At least three major trends will shape the risk environment in the short- to medium-term. The first is the Covid-19 pandemic progression and vaccination rollout. While North America and a handful of European and Asian countries see light at the end of the tunnel, new variants and a ferocious third wave threaten to overwhelm other parts of the world. The second is sharpening digital threats, some of which risk escalating into military confrontation. And the third, more optimistically, is the accelerating shift toward a greener economy.

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