Igarapé at COP 30: Towards a More Just and Sustainable Planet
Brazil is preparing to host COP30 in Belém do Pará at a decisive moment for the climate and nature agenda. For the Igarapé Institute, holding the conference in Amazonian territory represents a unique opportunity to transform symbolism into action: to place the forest at the center of climate negotiations, confront the environmental crimes that threaten it, strengthen multilateralism, and present solutions that connect bioeconomy, nature finance, and international cooperation in the pursuit of climate balance. With these goals in mind, the Institute engaged across Brazil and around the world in 2025 — from Davos to London, Nairobi to Bonn, Bogotá to Seville — advancing proposals for key debates and paving the way for COP30 to become a landmark moment for change.
Our work is rooted in the following pillars:
1. Promoting collective action to combat environmental crime as a cornerstone of the zero-deforestation target and the Paris Agreement;
2. Contributing to the strengthening of multilateralism and climate governance by promoting synergies between the climate and biodiversity conventions;
3. Strengthening nature-based solutions as climate solutions, and fostering innovations in nature and climate finance;
4. Promoting inspiring, action-oriented dialogues in partnership with Casa TED, bringing the best of Brazil to the world, and the best of the world to Brazil.
See details below:
1. Why must we address environmental crime at COP30?
Environmental crime drives illegal deforestation, biodiversity loss, and land-use change in tropical forest countries and other resource-rich biomes. These crimes are fueled by interconnected illicit markets dominated by criminal organizations operating across borders.
As a result, some of the world’s largest carbon sinks, such as the Amazon rainforest, are turning into net carbon emitters, accelerating climate change.
The impact of illegal deforestation
- Brazil is the world’s 5th largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG).¹
- 45% of its emissions come from deforestation,² of which 96% are illegal.³
Climate change, in turn, creates a vicious cycle. Rising temperatures, reduced soil and air humidity, and more frequent extreme weather events — such as forest fires, floods, and droughts — further damage forests and weaken ecosystems.
- 60% of the Amazon lies within Brazil,⁴ one of the planet’s largest carbon sinks.
- Mas o desmatamento recorde está levando a floresta ao ponto de não-retorno⁵.
Environmental crimes are already the world’s third-largest illicit economy, generating up to USD 280 billion annually — more than human trafficking or the illegal arms trade (FATF).
To meet its climate and biodiversity targets (NDC and NBSAP), Brazil must achieve zero deforestation in the Amazon and other biomes, and rapidly restore 12 million hectares of degraded land.
The situation is all the more grave when we consider that the Amazon Basin is close to a tipping point — that is, a point of no return:
> Over 6,700,000 km² of tropical forest, with approximately 61% located in Brazil’s “Legal Amazon”;
> 18% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon had already been deforested (as of September 2023);
> An estimated 20–25% of primary forest loss that could trigger a tipping point;
> Over 90% of deforestation in the Amazon is classified as illegal;
> 31% of the Eastern Legal Amazon had already been deforested (as of September 2022).⁶
Brazil, which has already adopted zero deforestation and ecological restoration as core commitments within its climate and biodiversity targets, must leverage its COP30 presidency to take a further step. This means putting the fight against environmental crime at the center of climate action, while mobilizing international support and capital.
2. Why Strengthen Multilateralism at COP30
Strengthening multilateralism is one of the central pillars of the Igarapé Institute’s work at COP30. We live in a time of overlapping crises: 2024 was the first year in which the global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C, yet climate finance continues to lag, and there is a risk of regression in international commitments. Against this backdrop, COP30 in Belém could mark a turning point.
As the conference president, Brazil has the opportunity to lead a global coalition to deliver urgent and structural solutions and commitments under the “Baku–Belém” roadmap, which aims to mobilize USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for developing countries.
- USD 1.3 trillion represents the climate finance gap for developing countries⁷.
- Currently, biodiversity finance faces an annual shortfall of USD 700 billion⁸.
The Igarapé Institute will work to ensure that COP30 is remembered as the conference that brought together the climate and nature agendas and translated their integration into concrete results. This means:
- Contributing to the reimagining of global governance as part of a broader effort to revitalize multilateralism in times of multiple crises. Based on President Lula’s proposal at the G20 in 2024, we suggest exploring an integrated model that unites climate and nature under a single governance framework — a “Global Council on Climate and Nature” at the United Nations. Such a body would be grounded in Earth system science, polycentric governance, networked multilateralism, and systemic thinking, aligning climate finance with solutions that truly address the complexity of the crisis.
- Promoting structured dialogues among the three Rio Conventions (climate, biodiversity, and desertification), reinforcing the view that there is no climate solution without nature, nor sustainable development without an inclusive bioeconomy.
- Highlighting the need to realign the international financial system by advocating reforms in multilateral development banks and creating innovative mechanisms that connect climate finance, nature, and sustainable development.
Our goal is clear: leverage Brazil’s COP30 presidency to advance more ambitious and inclusive global action integrating climate, nature, and development.
3. Nature as a Climate Solution and Innovative Climate and Nature Finance
Brazil can become a nature superpower, but this requires the courage to move from a destructive, exclusionary economic model to a sustainable one that promotes quality of life and social justice.
Afinal, o Brasil detém:
- 15–20% of global biodiversity⁹.
- 12% of the world’s surface freshwater¹⁰.
- >30% of the world’s primary tropical forests¹¹.
Opportunities: Growing markets for carbon credits and reforestation
- 4 billion tons of CO₂ available for sequestration through forest restoration potential¹².
- 12 million hectares of degraded forest slated for restoration under Brazil’s NDC by 2030¹³.
- USD 156 billion in potential revenue over 30 years from products derived from these 12 million restored hectares¹⁴.
An untapped bioeconomy with global potential
- USD 593 billion in annual Brazil’s GDP contribution from the bioeconomy by 2050¹⁵.
- 29 billion tons of CO₂eq reductions by 2050¹⁶.
- Up to 80% of Brazil’s 2050 carbon neutrality targetcould be achieved through Nature-based Solutions (NbS)¹⁷.
How to attract green investments?
The Green Bridge Facility (GBF) is an Igarapé Institute initiative designed to reduce territorial risks, expand green enterprise, and unlock responsible investments in Brazil and the Amazon Basin. Its goal is to generate social impact and contribute to zero deforestation, moving toward a nature-positive future while addressing critical barriers to a sustainable business environment, such as land insecurity, informality in supply chains, illicit economies, and regulatory complexity.
The “Know Your Territory” (KYT) methodology uses a systemic approach to ensure that capital arrives, remains, and thrives. Building on this methodology, a platform of the same name will be launched at COP30 to support decision-makers, particularly those working with Nature-based Solutions (NbS), in assessing territorial risks and opportunities. This assessment spans six dimensions at both the landscape and project levels, helping reduce operational, financial, and reputational costs for investors and entrepreneurs.
Why Natural Capital and Biodiversity Credits deserve Attention at COP30
Nature-based Solutions (NbS), including restoration, are increasingly recognized as effective strategies to mitigate climate change while generating environmental, social, and economic value. However, as is often the case in emerging markets, they still face critical barriers: limited finance, high perceived risk, and a lack of integration of nature’s value into economic and financial models.
To tackle the climate and biodiversity crises sustainably, it is essential to broaden the ways in which governments, companies, and financial institutions recognize the value of nature. Integrating natural capital as a core element of economic, financial, and public policy decisions — i.e., mainstreaming natural capital — is a fundamental step toward aligning the financial system with long-term ecological stability.
This process demonstrates clearly that nature underpins economic resilience, climate mitigation, food security, and public health. Over 50% of global GDP depends on these systems. Therefore, integrating the value of nature into economic and policy decisions is key to ensuring long-term prosperity.
In this movement, carbon credits remain central to the global response, but action must go beyond carbon. Biodiversity credits are emerging as a complementary and innovative instrument to direct capital toward conservation and restoration outcomes. They provide a means to promote nature-positive business models, create clear incentives for ecosystem protection, and ensure fair compensation for Indigenous peoples and local communities — the fundamental guardians of biodiversity.
The Igarapé Institute has actively contributed to this debate within the International Advisory Panel on Biodiversity Credits (IAPB) and the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Natural Capital, which brings together global experts to establish principles and safeguards that ensure the integrity, transparency, and impact of these markets.
COP30 in Belém will be an opportunity to accelerate this agenda, connecting natural capital and biodiversity credits as key pillars of a transition that unites economic prosperity, social justice, and climate balance.
On the Road to COP30
Along the Baku–Belém route, the Igarapé Institute has taken a leading role in the debate, presenting proposals and solutions to address the climate and biodiversity crisis at major global events. We have participated in events such as Davos, Bonn, Seville, and London.
Additionally, as organizational partners, we helped coordinate TEDx in Belém, spoke at TED Countdown in Nairobi, and are partners of TED House in Belém, which will take place during COP30.
References:
- UE (2023);
- SEEG (2023);
- MapBiomas (2024)
- BBC (2020);
- Lovejoy, T. and Nobre C. (2018)
- MAAP (2022)
- Independent High Level Expert Group (IHLEG)
- OCDE (2023)
- CBD
- UNEP
- Worl Rain Forests
- Valor (2024)
- MMA (2017)
- Instituto Escolhas (2023)
- ABBI
- ABBI
- Global Change Biology (2023)
